Wall Street is keeping a closer eye on the Federal Reserve, especially after its policy making committee suggested it would resume hiking borrowing costs rather soon. The Fed cited continued strong economic growth and a persistently low jobless rate as arguments for raising rates at its December meeting.
The often turbulent month of October has come and gone, and once again, it lived up to its reputation. True, the selloffs were not historic, in the mold of those suffered in 1987 and 2008. And there were intermittent rallies, some quite impressive. Still, there was considerable pain inflicted, as the indexes fell sharply during the 31-day span.
The Federal Reserve is assuming a more restrictive monetary stance, an adjustment that is leading to steadily rising interest rates. And that is not sitting well with investors.
Various factors are influencing market sentiment. When the focus has been on the healthy economy and the mostly upbeat second-quarter earnings performance, stocks have rallied. Conversely, when the attention has turned to tariffs and trade and to other global headwinds (most recently the financial crisis in Turkey), equities generally have weakened.
The employment outlook remains generally upbeat. True, job growth did slow in July, with 157,000 positions being added, or 30,000 fewer than forecast.
Earnings reports were still flowing in as July ended and August began. In general, the results have exceeded expectations. True, there have been shortfalls (and a few from high-profile companies), and in some cases, there has been disappointing guidance given for the coming quarters.
The economy was on a roll as the second half began, with much of this strength apparent in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing areas. The gains shown by these broad industrial and consumer categories were especially noteworthy in new orders and production.
Continuing economic tensions with China are front and center on Wall Street these days, with our fraught commercial dealings with that fast-growing nation in the headlines almost daily.
The first half is ending on a high note, with strong progress being made in reducing the unemployment rate, in narrowing the trade imbalance (with the deficit declining sharply in March and April), and in boosting retail spending (with sales coming in well above consensus forecasts during May).
May’s uplifting jobs report helped to turn around a stock market that had come under duress from global headwinds. To wit, the government’s survey showing a 223,000 increase in jobs in May, an 18-year low in unemployment, and a 2.7% rise in average hourly earnings over the past year was greeted warmly on Wall Street, with stocks rising for several days on this news.